Fan, the mathematician knows exactly what I am talking about. There is an average level of play in the NFL. And given enough time ie. high enough number of samplings, each NFL team will gravitate towards it. It helps explain why teams don't win forever or lose forever. And yes I know Cleveland has been losing in what seems like forever and there is such a thing as Standard Deviation from the mean. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about what Bob "The Ol' Gunner" Prince used to call "Hidden Vigorish." He would say that the laws of hidden vigorish indicated that Willie Stargell was likely to hit safely in his next at bat because he had gone 0-18 in his current hitting slump. He stated it as "The longer you go without a hit, the closer you come to getting one." In other words, gravitation to the mean.
And that's what we have with the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers. This year's Stillers have now lost 5 games, all of them by less than a TD and 2 in OT. Last year's Stillers won many a close game with last minute heroics and defensive stands. Off the top of my head we beat San Diego, Cleveland (first game), all 3 Baltimore games, Dallas and the Cards in the Super Bowl by less than a TD and/or in OT. And there's probably more but I'm not taking the time to look it up.
What this means is that we are naturally gravitating or regressing to the mean. We are becoming a very average football team. And if things don't change in December, that's exactly what we'll be. A very average 8-8 or 9-7. Can't remember what coach coined the phrase, "We are who our record says we are." But that's the truth.
9 comments:
Hats off to D.D. The guy made one mistake and unfortunately it was in OT and decided the game. Still, he gets a A- from me considering the circumstances.
If anything lost this game for us it was our defensive backs. THAT is the reason we are sucking this season, not to mention their horrible tackling too! Also why did we not make Dixon run or roll out more!?! Some of the offensive play calls we made last night blows my mind. I'm sick.
I was feeling the play calling in the first half. Late in the game it was horrible. Made no sense whatsoever. Its like he's spinng a dial to pick a play. Gay shouldn't be on the team let alone start. If not for penalties return coverage still sucks. Swagga? Please.
I believe Dennis Green discovered that they were who he thought they were.
Not to be confused with coach John McKay who, after Tampa Bay broke a 26-game losing streak, said, "Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs."
Looking at the schedule, I have the Steelers at 10-6... beating everybody but Baltimore. Optimistic but, at best, probably the last playoff team. This just ain't the year. But repeating is hard to do.
Living on the razor's edge as we do with this team... sometimes you get a close shave, sometimes you cut your neck. Last year we were clean shaven. This year we're bloody as hell.
Agree with all you guys on all points. Dixon played exactly as well as I expected. Play calling did not maximize the skills he has however. We've got big probems in the secondary once again. Gay is our second best CB, like it or not. And no depth at CB or Safety. Both DeShea Townsend and Charlie Batch are in their final seasons with the Steelers. And as much as it pains me to say it, Farrior can no longer cover backs on pass routes so his days are numbered as well. Leonard of the Bengals and Rice of the Ravens routinely made him look silly in 3rd or 4th and long conversions.
I have become a believer however, Mendenhall is the real deal.
Regarding the Browns, you have to remember that the mean is always lower in Cleveland.
I think it was also John McKay who said:
Q: Coach, what do you think about your team's execution?
A: I think it's a great idea.
I'd like to see 3 changes.
1) New special teams coach.
2) New (progressive thinking) Offensive Cooridinator.
3) The ultimate demise of Steely McBeam.
Gay sucked. Taylor sucked. I wish Baltimore had a tougher schedule for the rest of the season - that sucks too.
I agree we need a new Special Teams Coach. And if not a new Offensive Coordinator then at least somebody else calling the plays on gameday.
Regarding Steely McBeam, I wish he never existed. And I told Fan that it was not a good idea to have his picture taken with him. But did he listen? No. So the result? We are 1-3 since Fan disregarded my advice and insisted that I take his picture with Steely.
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